European policymakers have identified battery electric cars as an indispensable ally for decarbonizing road transport. Italy’s participation in these electrification trajectories is decisive for the success of the EU strategy

The EU roadmap to Net-Zero in 2050 assigns to road transport ambitious decarbonisation targets, envisaging a 40 per cent GHG reduction compared to 2005 levels. As passenger cars account for around 50 per cent of total road transport emissions, European policymakers have identified battery electric cars as an indispensable ally for decarbonizing road transport.

Italy’s participation in these electrification trajectories is decisive for the success of the EU strategy. With almost 41 million passenger cars in 2023, Italy has one of the largest fleets in the European Union – second only to Germany (48.8 million in 2023). Yet, in Italy more than elsewhere, electric mobility is struggling to take the lead.

To cut out the greenhouse gas emissions originating from road transport, the Regulation (EU) 2023/851 envisages a ban on the commercialization of non-zero emission passenger cars and lightweight vehicles by 2035. How are consumers preparing for this deadline? How drastic of a change is it going to be? Are there strategies to arrive better equipped to 2035 and, ultimately to 2050? What can the experiences of neighbouring European countries teach us in this respect?

In this article, we dive into the diffusion path for zero-emission passenger cars in Italy, by 2030. We evaluate the compatibility of the current diffusion trends with the goals stated in the Italian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). First, we present the status quo of the Italian passenger car fleet. Secondly, we lay out four different diffusion scenarios.

The first is a baseline scenario based on monthly historical data on new full-electric car registrations in Italy. The second is an accelerated diffusion scenario hypothesising greater supply-side responsiveness to consumer preferences.
In the remaining two scenarios we apply, with a few caveats, the e-cars diffusion trends of France and Germany to the Italian case, thus gaining some insights on possible avenues for policy-making.[...]

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